Deterministic Chaos in an Experimental Economic System (Classic Reprint)

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Excerpt from Deterministic Chaos in an Experimental Economic System An experiment with a simulated macroeconomic system demonstrates that the decision-making processes of agents can produce deterministic chaos. Subjects managed capital investment in a simple multiplier-accelerator economy. Performance, however, was systematically suboptimal. A model of the subjects decision rule is proposed and related to prior studies of dynamic decision making. Econometric estimates show the model is an excellent representation of the actual decisions. The estimated rules are then simulated to evaluate the stability of the subjects decision processes. While the majority of the estimated rules are stable, approximately 40% yield a variety of dynamics including limit cycles, period multiples, and chaos. Analysis of the parameter space reveals a complex bifurcation structure. Implications for models of human systems and experimental studies of economic dynamics are explored. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully, any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.